Consumer prices jumped 3.3% year-over-year in March, the highest since May 2024, as the Iran war drove energy costs up 12.5% and gasoline surged 18.9%. The 0.9% monthly increase was the largest since June 2022. Rate cut hopes for 2026 are fading fast.
Nike shares suffered their worst single-day drop in years, falling more than 15% after the company projected a 20% decline in China revenue and warned that the Iran war’s economic ripple effects are undermining its global turnaround strategy.
Futures traders have pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase by year-end to 52%, the first time it has crossed the 50% threshold. Six months ago, the consensus was multiple rate cuts. The complete reversal is being driven by oil above $110 and inflation projections that are getting worse by the week.
U.S. gas prices crossed $4 a gallon on Tuesday for the first time since 2022, as Brent crude’s record 55% monthly gain sends shockwaves from the pump to the grocery aisle. With diesel at $5.45 and the Iran war entering its fifth week, the consumer spending squeeze is accelerating.
The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2.4% on Thursday, officially entering correction territory as Brent crude surged past $110 per barrel. Wall Street is staring down its fifth consecutive weekly loss, the longest streak since 2022, while consumer sentiment cratered to its lowest reading of 2026.
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day FOMC meeting with rates expected to hold at 3.75%. But the real action comes Wednesday with the Dot Plot, where surging oil prices, sticky inflation, and 15% tariffs collide with a cooling labor market for the first time in the Fed’s official projections.
A devastating jobs report, an oil shock from the Iran war, tariff-driven inflation, and a paralyzed Federal Reserve all landed in the same week. This is what a perfect economic storm looks like.
The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% clip in the third quarter of 2025. The stock market has been hitting records. Unemployment, by historical standards, remains low. And nearly 60% of Americans believe the country is currently in a recession. They’re wrong about the technical