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Anthropic Disclosed Up to $84.5 Billion in SpaceX Compute Deals. Most Can Be Ended on 90 Days’ Notice.

Anthropic's prospectus lists up to $84.5 billion in SpaceX compute agreements, most cancelable on 90 days' notice. We added up the rent roll: Anthropic is 54% of it.

By Scott Allan 4 min read
A tablet showing the SpaceX and Anthropic logos on a wooden desk beside highlighted filing pages and a page with a calendar circled in red

Two numbers are now attached to the same contract, and neither one is a floor. SpaceX’s own IPO filing put Anthropic’s compute commitment at roughly $45 billion. Anthropic’s confidential prospectus, reported by Reuters on September 29, says it could spend up to $84.5 billion through 2029, and in the same breath says the agreements can mostly be canceled on 90 days’ notice. Coverage has treated both figures as backlog. A contract that either side can walk away from in a quarter is an option, and an option is not the revenue SpaceX shares are being priced on. SPCX closed Friday near $159, up 7.35%.

Two Numbers for One Customer

The first figure is simple arithmetic. Anthropic agreed in May to pay $1.25 billion a month through May 2029 for compute capacity, and 36 months of that is about $45 billion. The second figure, $84.5 billion, is 1.9 times larger, and nothing public explains the gap. If Anthropic used the full ceiling, it would be paying SpaceX an average of roughly $2.35 billion a month, nearly double the rate both sides announced.

What the filing language gives us:

  1. A ceiling of up to $84.5 billion through 2029, not a commitment to spend it.
  2. A cancellation right of 90 days’ notice on most of the SpaceX agreements.
  3. No statement of which party holds that right, and no take-or-pay minimum.

The Rent Roll, Added Up

Anthropic is not SpaceX’s only tenant, and the other two are small enough to show how lopsided the book is. Adding the three disclosed contracts at their monthly rates gives us a picture nobody has published in one place:

  1. Anthropic: $1.25 billion a month through May 2029.
  2. Google: about $920 million a month for 32 months, roughly $29 billion in total.
  3. Reflection AI: $150 million a month from July 1 through 2029, worth up to $6.3 billion.

That is $2.32 billion a month, or about $27.8 billion a year, and by our math Anthropic is 54% of it. One customer pays more than half the rent, and that customer’s contract is the one with the 90-day language. TD Cowen’s view, as reported alongside the filing, is that AI compute leasing could be roughly 60% of SpaceX revenue next year. Put those two facts together and the biggest line in the business rests on a single tenant who can reportedly leave.

What 90 Days Is Worth

At $1.25 billion a month, 90 days of rent is $3.75 billion. If Anthropic holds the exit, that is the real minimum on the largest contract: about 8% of the $45 billion headline and under 5% of the $84.5 billion ceiling. If SpaceX holds it, the risk flips to Anthropic, which would then be building a model roadmap on capacity that can be pulled in a quarter. Either way the word “commitment” is doing more work than the paperwork supports.

The same filing says Anthropic expects to spend at least $518 billion over the next decade across six infrastructure partners. A company that hungry for compute is not likely to cancel a working supercomputer in a hurry. That is the best argument for the bulls, and it is a good one. It is also an argument about demand, which is real, and not about contract protection, which is what a rent roll needs.

CNBC-TV18, May 6: the original announcement that Anthropic would take all of Colossus 1.

The Building at the Center of It

Colossus 1, the Memphis data center, is the asset behind the first contract, with roughly 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Bloomberg reported in June that SpaceX rented it out after its own teams had trouble using it. According to The Next Web’s account of that reporting, the problems included latency linking the site to two others more than 10 miles away, aging network gear, and a mix of Nvidia generations from Hopper and Blackwell down to older accelerators.

So capacity SpaceX could not make work for Grok now earns it $15 billion a year from a rival lab. That tells you how short compute is, and it tells you the pricing is set by scarcity rather than by the building. Scarcity ends. When it does, the tenant with a 90-day exit is the one who gets to renegotiate.

Where BTN Comes Down

Treat $45 billion and $84.5 billion as ceilings, never as backlog. SpaceX is a launch business with a compute-leasing business attached, and the leasing business is concentrated in one customer on short notice. Until SpaceX says who holds the exit and what the minimum is, valuing that revenue as if it were locked is paying a full price for optionality.

The cleanest test arrives when Anthropic’s prospectus goes public. Our read of its leaked loss figures already showed how much of that company’s plan depends on capacity it does not own, and the cancellation language will show how much of SpaceX’s plan depends on Anthropic staying.