Silgan is paying 7.1 times EBITDA for Trivium Packaging and valuing its own metal-can business at 8.1 times in the same deal. That one-turn spread sits behind the $2.3 billion of cash Silgan gets back, and the leverage left in the new company only looks like 4.0 times if $225 million of cost savings show up on schedule. On the EBITDA the two businesses earn today, we calculate it is closer to 4.9 times.
Silgan, Trivium and funds affiliated with American Industrial Partners (AIP) announced the deal on October 19. Silgan’s Metal Containers segment and its food and beverage flat cap closures unit merge with Trivium into Silgan Metal Containers and Closures. Silgan keeps 60% and AIP takes 40%. Investors liked it: Silgan shares rose 5.5%.
The Arithmetic Nobody Printed
Silgan’s investor presentation gives each side’s trailing figures to June 30, 2026. Putting them next to the enterprise values in the press release produces a table the announcement never shows.
| Business | Net sales | Adjusted EBITDA | Margin | Enterprise value | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trivium | $3,080.9M | $478.3M | 15.5% | $3.4B | 7.1x |
| Silgan metal and closures | $4,183.3M | $473.2M | 11.3% | $3.8B | 8.1x |
| Combined, today | $7,264.2M | $951.5M | 13.1% | $7.2B | 7.6x |
| Combined, with $225M savings | $7,264.2M | $1,176.5M | 16.2% | $7.2B | 6.1x |
Sums and ratios are ours, from Silgan’s own figures. The savings row matches the $1,176.5 million pro forma number in the deck.
Read the first two rows together. Trivium earns about four points more margin than the Silgan business it is joining, and Silgan is buying it a full turn cheaper than it is pricing its own. The 4.8x multiple Silgan advertises for Trivium also leans on savings worth 47% of Trivium’s entire EBITDA. Our view: the discount on Trivium’s headline multiple is mostly a promise.
Where the Debt Lands
Silgan says the combined company starts with net leverage of 4.0 times. It does not print the debt. We can back into it. AIP is putting in about $1.0 billion for 40%, which implies $2.5 billion of equity in the whole business. Subtract that from the $7.2 billion enterprise value and roughly $4.7 billion is borrowed.
That $4.7 billion is 4.0 times $1,176.5 million, the savings-inclusive figure. Against the $951.5 million the two businesses earn today, it is 4.9 times. Silgan expects $75 million of savings in year one, $150 million in year two and the full $225 million by the end of year three, so the lenders are underwriting a ratio the company will not reach until the third year, if everything goes to plan. Closing is not expected until mid-2027, which pushes the first clean test later still.
Our read: this is a good deal for Silgan shareholders in the near term and a more demanding one for everyone else. Silgan converts a business it values at 8.1 times into cash and keeps control. It then repays borrowings with the $2.3 billion, and the company reports at least 15% adjusted EPS accretion including full run-rate cost savings. The risk of missing the savings number sits inside the new company, which Silgan and AIP now share.
What to Watch Before Mid-2027
Three things decide whether the 4.0x on the slide becomes real. First, whether the $75 million arrives in year one. Second, whether regulators in North America and Europe, where the release says both businesses operate, look hard at metal food-can capacity. That one is our concern rather than anything in the filings. Third, what Silgan reports as leverage in its first quarter after closing, on actual rather than pro forma EBITDA.
If the savings come in late, 4.9 times does not fix itself. It gets paid down out of cash flow from a business that earns 13 cents of EBITDA per dollar of sales. Investors cheered the cash. The leverage math is the part to follow.