Government, regulation, and geopolitics coverage
Futures traders have pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase by year-end to 52%, the first time it has crossed the 50% threshold. Six months ago, the consensus was multiple rate cuts. The complete reversal is being driven by oil above $110 and inflation projections that are getting worse by the week.
A federal judge in San Francisco granted Anthropic a preliminary injunction against the Trump administration, ordering the Pentagon to rescind its designation of the AI company as a “supply chain risk.” The 43-page ruling called the blacklist “arbitrary and capricious” and found the government engaged in First Amendment retaliation.
New court filings reveal a Pentagon official emailed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei saying the two sides were “very close” on autonomous weapons and surveillance guardrails, just one week after Trump publicly severed ties with the AI company. Tuesday’s hearing before Judge Rita Lin could redefine the relationship between AI companies and the U.S. military.
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day FOMC meeting with rates expected to hold at 3.75%. But the real action comes Wednesday with the Dot Plot, where surging oil prices, sticky inflation, and 15% tariffs collide with a cooling labor market for the first time in the Fed’s official projections.
The Supreme Court just blew a hole through the centerpiece of Donald Trump’s economic agenda, and markets are already celebrating. In a 6-3 ruling delivered Friday morning, the justices declared that Trump exceeded his authority when he used a 1977 national emergency law to slap
President Donald Trump just nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell when his term expires in May. The announcement caps a year-long pressure campaign against Powell that included personal insults, threats of termination, and just three weeks ago, DOJ subpoenas threatening
Wall Street just lived through the most exhausting 48 hours since Liberation Day. President Trump’s Greenland tariff threats sent the S&P 500 plunging 2.1% on Tuesday, its worst day since October, only for markets to roar back Wednesday after Trump announced the “concept of a
Prime Minister Mark Carney just executed one of the boldest foreign policy pivots in Canadian history. The former central banker traveled to Beijing last week and returned with a trade agreement that effectively tears up Canada’s alignment with Washington on Chinese electric vehicles while unlocking
President Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland just triggered the first major market rout of 2026. Over the weekend, Trump announced 10% tariffs on eight European nations starting February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1, unless Denmark agrees to sell the Arctic territory. The response
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods walked into the White House with a message President Trump didn’t want to hear: Venezuela is “uninvestable.” The blunt assessment during a meeting between Trump and major oil executives has now put the world’s largest publicly traded oil company at risk
The Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a stunning escalation in the Trump administration’s campaign against the central bank that sent markets reeling and triggered immediate bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill. Powell disclosed the probe himself, revealing
Defense stocks went on a wild ride over the past 24 hours, first plunging on threats from President Trump to block dividends and share buybacks, then surging on his call for a record $1.5 trillion military budget in 2027. The whiplash illustrates a new reality
Mark Carney has a $300 billion problem. Three-quarters of Canadian exports flow south to a trading partner that keeps threatening 25% tariffs on everything from steel to softwood lumber. So the Prime Minister is doing what Canadian leaders have talked about for decades: actually diversifying